Thursday, November 13, 2008

NYT: World leaders quick to press Obama: Their ideas flow in on how Obama should change U.S. foreign policy

WASHINGTON - The Russians want him to hold off installation of a missile defense shield in Poland. The Europeans want him to renounce the idea of “regime change” when it comes to Iran, while the Israelis want to be sure he doesn’t give Iran a pass when it comes to nuclear weapons.

Oh, and let’s not forget the Taliban, which issued a statement this week urging him to “put an end to all the policies being followed by his Opposition Party, the Republicans, and pull out U.S. troops from Afghanistan and Iraq.”

There’s a world of advice out there for President-elect Barack Obama. Within minutes of his election on Nov. 4, the calls from foreign governments began, Obama aides say, and they haven’t stopped.

While the first telephone exchanges between Mr. Obama and foreign leaders were limited to pledges of future cooperation and invitations to visit, those leaders and their underlings have also been contacting Mr. Obama’s advisers and their surrogates with suggestions for how an Obama administration should conduct, and change, American foreign policy.

Foreign 'bombardment' is normal
There are also signs that some foreign governments are moving to alter the playing field even before Mr. Obama takes office. On Wednesday alone, North Korea said it would not allow outside inspectors to take soil samples from its main nuclear complex; Iran successfully tested a new long-range missile reportedly capable of reaching southeastern Europe; and Russia rejected an American proposal meant to assuage Russian fears over the planned missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic.

The foreign bombardment is normal during any presidential transition, but is accelerated in this case, foreign policy experts said, because of the historic nature of Mr. Obama’s election and the sharply different course that world leaders expect him to pursue in American foreign policy.

“We have heard a lot of important ideas from our friends and allies,” said Denis McDonough, a foreign policy adviser to Mr. Obama. “We consider them closely in an effort to be a partner that listens, as the President-elect shapes his agenda to advance U.S. interests from his first day in office.” But until Inauguration Day, Mr. McDonough said, the Obama team will be in a listen-only mode.

Even months before the election, senior advisers to Mr. Obama (including Anthony Lake, the former national security adviser) met with European officials, including Pierre Vimont, the French ambassador to Washington, and Nigel Sheinwald, the British ambassador, European diplomats said. British and French officials are urging the Obama team to work on the atmospherics before sitting down to talk with Iran, out of concern that Mr. Obama’s pledge to open talks with Iran without preconditions won’t work unless it is delicately plotted.

The Bush administration has repeatedly denied that it is seeking regime change in Iran. But Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and other top officials have also balked at giving Iran any direct assurance of that, and have maintained publicly that all options remain on the table to confront Iran over its nuclear program.

Behavior change in Iran
Vice President-elect Joseph Biden has said he thought the Bush administration should explicitly assure the Iranian leadership that it would not seek regime change, as one part of a package of incentives and sanctions that the United States and Europe have been offering in hopes of prying Iran away from its nuclear program.

Mr. Obama, for his part, has been a little less clear: he told The New York Times in September, “I think it is important for us to send a signal that we are not hell-bent on regime change, just for the sake of regime change, but expect changes in behavior, and there are both carrots and there are sticks available to them for those changes in behavior.”

European officials said that the Obama advisers have played their cards close to the chest. “They come in, they listen, and they say, ‘Thank you very much,’ ” said one official of a European embassy in Washington. He asked that his name not be used because he was not authorized to speak publicly on the issue.

The French foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner, said over breakfast with reporters in Washington this week that he believes “that the personality of Barack Obama can make a difference” when it comes to Iran. But Mr. Kouchner also urged Mr. Obama to exercise caution, using a speech at the Brookings Institution to warn that the carefully plotted, as yet unsuccessful trans-Atlantic effort to rein in Tehran’s nuclear ambitions could collapse if the American game changer doesn’t actually change the game.

Israel pushing too
Israel has been pushing, too. Mr. Obama received a congratulatory phone call from Prime Minister Ehud Olmert last week, and Mr. Biden called the main candidates to succeed Mr. Olmert — Tzipi Livni, Ehud Barak and Benjamin Netanyahu — on Tuesday, Israeli officials said.

A senior Israeli official said that the Israeli government is in touch with Mr. Obama’s close aides, in particular with Dennis B. Ross, President Clinton’s former envoy to the Middle East. “For us, it’s Iran,” the official said, adding that Israel wants to make sure that Mr. Obama will tackle the Iran issue as soon as he takes office. “We can’t afford a vacuum.”

Russia, too, has already made a proposal, one that is close to Moscow’s heart. Last Friday, Russia’s deputy foreign minister Alexander Grushko, said that Moscow would not deploy missiles in Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave that borders Poland, if Mr. Obama scraps the Bush administration’s planned missile defense shield. Mr. Obama has said that he supports a missile shield, provided that the technology is workable and cost efficient.

As for the Taliban, it seems unlikely that Mr. Obama will be acceding to its call for American troops to be pulled out of Afghanistan; he said during the campaign that, to the contrary, he would increase the number of American combat brigades deployed there.

Still, there could be room for compromise. Along with its usual invective against the Bush administration, the Taliban called in its statement for Mr. Obama to “respect the rights of the people to independence and observe the norms of human rights.”

“In short,” the Taliban statement said, “he should set out on a policy that will have a message of peace for the war-stricken world.”


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